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2024-04: Artificial Intelligence, US interest rate, consumer discretionary price inflation as predictors for US equity 6 months out
tsterm.com is an engine that computes for causal predictors that predict future values of stocks, bonds, exchange rates etc. As of 2024-04-18, under 6…
12 hrs ago
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2024-04: Artificial Intelligence, US interest rate, consumer discretionary price inflation as predictors for US equity 6 months out
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Equities at Global Level (II)
In the first post, we wrote about Reagan era fiscal policy by which to spend more than collected tax revenue. Accompanying that, west allies' currencies…
Apr 11
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Equities at Global Level (II)
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Equities at Global Level (I)
Since some time, France equity EWQ is computed to be a top predictor generally under 6-month outlook. This is the first time a non-US asset be computed…
Apr 10
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Equities at Global Level (I)
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24-Month Review of Prediction Performance
tsterm.com was online about two years ago. Let’s review the performance of prediction performance by doing a on-paper trading backtest. Using 2-day…
Apr 2
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24-Month Review of Prediction Performance
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March 2024
Long-term promise vs current running of economy (IV)
Central banking, (commercial banks) money supply, stock market, inflation
Mar 28
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy (IV)
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy (III)
Central banking, (commercial banks) money supply, stock market, inflation
Mar 27
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy (III)
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy (II)
Central banking, (commercial banks) money supply, stock market, inflation
Mar 26
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy (II)
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy
Central banking, (commercial banks) money supply, stock market, inflation
Mar 25
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Long-term promise vs current running of economy
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2024-03: (Second to US interest rate,) Aviation theme as emerging predictor for global assets, real economy as predictor for US equity
As of Mon 18 Mar, using 6-month forecast period, as computed by tsterm.com, the common causal predictors for global assets (US, Europe, Asia etc) across…
Mar 19
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2024-03: (Second to US interest rate,) Aviation theme as emerging predictor for global assets, real economy as predictor for US equity
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February 2024
2024-02: Real economy as drivers (causal predictors) for US equity 6 months out (AI stocks having run away)
As of Wed 21 Feb, using 6-month ahead forecast period, as computed by searching for QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US on tsterm.com, the common causal predictors for…
Feb 22
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2024-02: Real economy as drivers (causal predictors) for US equity 6 months out (AI stocks having run away)
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January 2024
2024-01: AI stocks and consumer as drivers (predictors) for US equity 6 months out
According to tsterm.com, using 6-month ahead forecast period, if one searches for QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US, the three US equity index ETFs, as of Thu 18 Jan…
Jan 19
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2024-01: AI stocks and consumer as drivers (predictors) for US equity 6 months out
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December 2023
2023-12: Global assets, US assets' driving forces getting more aligned with each other as the US interest rates ease, both include AI stocks
According to tsterm.com, using 6-month ahead horizon, When we add non-US assets to the US ones and call that basket global assets, that basket used to…
Dec 19, 2023
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2023-12: Global assets, US assets' driving forces getting more aligned with each other as the US interest rates ease, both include AI stocks
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