Archive - Time Series Terminal’s Newsletter

Gold vs Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500. US stocks driven by tariff threat. Global assets driven by US payroll. Iran and neighbouring countries…

As supply chain is perturbed, in order to maintain the same profitability, American businesses may resort to laying off employees.

Jun 30 •

Time Series Terminal

May 2025

History of US national (federal) debt and how they relate to trade imbalance

They are not directly related but have a common component.

May 31 •

Time Series Terminal

2025-05: Tariff threat, semiconductor driving US equity; semiconductor, utility (inflation) driving Western Europe equity; semiconductor…

As of Thu 29 May market close, tsterm.com identifies causally predictive factors

May 30 •

Time Series Terminal

CPRT used car auction service floats to top driving factor 2 days before US tariff on auto parts comes into effect

CPRT joins the top four driving factors for the three US stock indices since 2025-05-01 market close.

May 4 •

Time Series Terminal

April 2025

2025-04: Volatile semiconductor/tech driving US stock indices

The gaming stock Take-Two TTWO is an interesting driver.

Apr 29 •

Time Series Terminal

JPMorgan JPM: tsterm.com computed daily position starts shaving off since October 2024, realising higher Sharpe ratio (return-to-risk ratio)

The daily position stayed stable until October 2024 (one month before US General Election) when it started shaving off.

Apr 26 •

Time Series Terminal

War and liberal economics: tsterm.com's analysis of the US dollar to China Yuan exchange rate

By rolling back tariff to 10%, most international revenue of US companies got protected, as well as Chinese investment outside China.

Apr 10 •

Time Series Terminal

How fast can Buffett sell his stock portfolio down to zero holding?

Up to 1 year, generally.

Apr 4 •

Time Series Terminal

March 2025

How to find Buffett's AAPL holding from SEC.gov?

The news says that Buffett has sold 70% of AAPL from its peak holding.

Mar 26 •

Time Series Terminal

2025-03: semiconductor resetting to 2023-2024 level, some consumer service resetting to 2020 level driving US equity 6 months out

NVDA, SNPS resetting to 2023-2024 level, UPS resetting to 2020 level driving US equity 6 months out.

Mar 26 •

Time Series Terminal

Velocity of money: how many times one dollar changes hand in an economy

Wikipedia defines “velocity of money” as “the number of times that one unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time…

Mar 6 •

Time Series Terminal

February 2025

2025-02: Gold, oil and gas energy driving US equity six months out

US protective trade policies: if it is harder to get dollar from trade, then a foreign central bank may turn to buying gold for the reserve.

Feb 21 •

Time Series Terminal

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