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2024-12: Some tariff and security policy threats may be driving US equity
As of Saturday 21 December 2024, the computed top causal predictors driving the three US stock index ETFs QQQ.US, SPY.US, DIA.US are
Dec 22, 2024
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2024-12: Some tariff and security policy threats may be driving US equity
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November 2024
2024-11: Bitcoin driving global (US and ex-US) assets; 1933, 1934 US gold/silver nationalisation
Causal Predictors for Global Assets 6 months away
Nov 24, 2024
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2024-11: Bitcoin driving global (US and ex-US) assets; 1933, 1934 US gold/silver nationalisation
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October 2024
2024-10: AI deployment drives the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, which in turn drives the US Dollar's value vs other western currencies
On tsterm.com when the forecast period is 6 months, and the user searches for some instrument, it will display what are computed as the most important…
Oct 22, 2024
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2024-10: AI deployment drives the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, which in turn drives the US Dollar's value vs other western currencies
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September 2024
2024-09: The risk may be in the stock valuations: semiconductor trending down, healthcare trending up predictive of S&P 500
As of Tue 24 Sep, the following factors are computed by tsterm.com to be causally predictive of the S&P 500 ETF SPY (six months out):
Sep 25, 2024
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2024-09: The risk may be in the stock valuations: semiconductor trending down, healthcare trending up predictive of S&P 500
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NVDA August 2024 drop and NVDA vs Gold
NVDA August drop
Sep 5, 2024
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NVDA August 2024 drop and NVDA vs Gold
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August 2024
2024-08: stocks producing daily essentials (consumer/energy), biotechnology, industrial top causal predictors for S&P 500; DuPont to split…
S&P 500
Aug 20, 2024
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2024-08: stocks producing daily essentials (consumer/energy), biotechnology, industrial top causal predictors for S&P 500; DuPont to split into three companies
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Amid July 2024 slip: US bonds (and interest rates)
The farther away the maturity is, the less tsterm.com expects the interest rate to drop.
Aug 1, 2024
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Amid July 2024 slip: US bonds (and interest rates)
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July 2024
Amid July 2024 slip: GS and JPM
Lowering interest rates from a high level benefit GS business; consumer inflation supports positively JPM.
Jul 31, 2024
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Amid July 2024 slip: GS and JPM
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Amid July 2024 slip: AMZN considered "investment-grade bond-like"
Unlike AAPL, NVDA, or MSFT, AMZN’s top causal predictor is computed as a US investment-grade bond ETF.
Jul 30, 2024
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Amid July 2024 slip: AMZN considered "investment-grade bond-like"
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Amid July 2024 slip: Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500
tsterm.com expects the July 2024 market slip to affect less S&P 500 than Nasdaq 100.
Jul 29, 2024
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Amid July 2024 slip: Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500
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2024-07: European equity, US stocks producing daily essentials as predictors for US equity
As of Thursday 18 July 2024, the top common causal predictors for US three stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are
Jul 19, 2024
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2024-07: European equity, US stocks producing daily essentials as predictors for US equity
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June 2024
2024-06: Performance of past simulated trades online; Risks from Western Europe worth watching for US equity
We have put performance of past simulated trades online.
Jun 22, 2024
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2024-06: Performance of past simulated trades online; Risks from Western Europe worth watching for US equity
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