2025-09: AAPL and pharmaceutical driving US stocks
Apple AAPL and Abbott Laboratories ABT are computed as the top two causally predictive factors of the prices of the three US stock index ETFs. The prediction target date is the day in 6 months.
Search for “QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US” on tsterm.com,
ABT at $133 now is close to the historical peak $139 on 24/12/2021.
In a way, pharmaceutical is not just about its own industry, but a symbol for US inflation as well. Note in the news:
“US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday (25/09/2025) 100% tariffs on (branded) pharmaceutical products imported into the US, but the European Commission remains hopeful that the deal concluded with Washington this summer—setting 15% tariffs on EU goods—will also apply to the sector.” https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/09/26/pharma-tariffs-the-eus-confident-it-can-dodge-us-measures
If the EU can keep the 15% tariff on medical products, that means US pharmaceutical companies may import them at a lower cost (than under 100% tariff), but they will have to be unbranded. The US companies may have a free hand to set their prices.
At the moment, tsterm.com only computes on market prices for causally predictive factors. US market is usually so efficient that the liquid assets’ prices have incorporated almost all the good or bad news for the particular asset. For more details, refer to the White Paper found at the bottom of the tsterm.com site.
We recall in the June post, the computed daily position for Gold ETF GLD was starting to come back up. Let us check it again,
When the gold price was staying around $3,500/ounce, the computed daily position got reduced to about 0.80 ounce. It started going back up to be close to 1 ounce, the gold price also rallied later. Such active strategy would realise a higher return-to-volatility(-of-the-portfolio-value) ratio (the Sharpe ratio): 1.72 vs 1.7 from the passive holding of constant amount of gold, by holding less of the asset over the period of little return and just volatility.
For more detail on how we compute the daily position from the probabilistic prediction always for the prediction target date, refer to the White Paper.
We list the appreciation of prices since the beginning of November 2024 the month of US general election. US dollar has depreciated 39% vs gold.
Gold ETF GLD +39%
Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ +23%
S&P 500 ETF SPY. +16%
Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA. +10%
References
Time Series Terminal white paper https://tsterm.com/static/whitepaper.html
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2025-06: Gold vs Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 prediction
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