2025-04: Volatile semiconductor/tech driving US stock indices
The gaming stock Take-Two TTWO is an interesting driver.
Search for the ETFs for the three stock indices (the stock indices themselves may be expensive and not provided by each data vendor; but the ETFs tracking them are usually widely available) “QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US”. Do not type in the quotation marks.
Below are the top four (common) driving factors computed for the three ETFs.
Nvidia NVDA graphics/AI chip producer, semiconductor
Take-two TTWO. gaming, media/tech
Micron MU. memory chip producer, semiconductor
Amazon AMZN. consumer platform, cloud services, consumer/tech
The Take-Two TTWO is an interesting example.
un-impacted by tariff yet
the stock price has gone from 2024-10-01 US Election period 150 USD, to 225 USD at present, an increase of 50%
the net earning is still negative
Given the above, tsterm.com may be considering that the Nasdaq 100 index is not really going through a recession (or TTWO the driver won’t be as ebullient).
Amid the tariff war, such fully digital businesses, international by nature, may be worthy watching.
How trustable are the computed driving factors?
The probabilistic predictions in 6 months’ time are made by prediction models trained from the then identified driving factors. Expand on the box “Goodness of Probabilistic Prediction”. On a sample of dates, if the p-value is over 0.001, the goodness is acceptable. More information is provided in that box, or in the white paper.
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