War and liberal economics: tsterm.com's analysis of the US dollar to China Yuan exchange rate
By rolling back tariff to 10%, most international revenue of US companies got protected, as well as Chinese investment outside China.
To predict the USDCNY exchange rate in six months, search for “CNY” or “USDCNY” (without quotation marks, the letter case does not matter) on tsterm.com. One may find the top driving factors:
The top three: Marriott, Amazon, Nike are all consumer platform or brands with international revenue. Amazon has the cloud business Amazon Web Services, by nature international, strategically important and being the profitable business line.
To check the revenue details of these companies, go to https://www.sec.gov/search-filings, type the company names. The 10-K reports are audited annual reports.
The 2 April tariffs applied 20% tariff to EU, 24-50% to the Asia bloc except Singapore and Australia. We suppose the original ones would impact all ex-US revenue, but after rolling back to 10% on 9 April, only up to Greater China revenue of those US firms will be impacted. Based on financial year 2024 figures,
Marriott MAR 2024 10-K page 60
original tariff impact 17.5% total revenue
after rollback 2.5% total revenue
Amazon AMZN 2024 10-K page 66
original tariff impact. 27% total revenue
after rollback. nil
Nike NKE 2024 10-K page 84
original tariff impact. 57% total revenue
after rollback. 15% total revenue
How trustable are the computed driving factors (causal predictors)?
If one expands on the “Goodness of Probabilistic Prediction” box, one shall see for a sample of dates forecast for, the statistical test of goodness is not rejected (with p-value higher than the threshold 0.001).
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