# Predictions for world currencies, emerging markets have generally weakened when denominated in US dollar

On tsterm.com, under 6 months outlook, as of 2024-04-25,

## World Currencies

if we search for GBPUSD;EURUSD;USDJPY;USDCNY;USDCHF;GLD.US, we will see apart from the last two safe haven assets, the major currencies are all predicted to depreciate against the USD for the coming day 2024-04-25.

You can view the predictions at https://tsterm.com/?q=gbpusd%3Beurusd%3Busdjpy%3Busdcny%3Busdchf%3Bgld.us&h=24w&asof=2024-04-25.

GBPUSD. 94% of models predict down

EURUSD 60% of models predict down

USDJPY 97% of models predict up

USDCNY. 25% of models predict up

USDCHF. 100% of models predict down

Gold ETF GLD.US. 100% of models predict up

Their common predictors No. 4 is the Emerging Markets ETF EEM, denominated in the US dollar. Let’s examine the next-day prediction history under the 6 months outlook, which has been gradually weakening since September 2023.

## Emerging Markets ETF EEM denominated in US dollar

The “synthetic position” below is directly taken from the next-day net prediction: if on a Thursday, the net prediction for the next day Friday is “60% of models predict up”, the synthetic, or on-paper position for that Friday would be calculated as 60% multiplied by a predetermined max risk limit in terms of the number of shares/lots, rather than a predetermined USD amount.

So according to tsterm.com, under 6 months outlook, emerging markets current behaviour feed back onto the currencies’ behaviour 6 months later.

## The forward-looking implied inflation rate for 5-10 years from now may be expected to increase

If we search for the nominal and real 5-, 10-Year US treasury bond yield rates DGS5;DFII5;DGS10;DFII10, from the next-day prediction table

one may read

5-Year nominal yield rate: 50% of models predict up

5-Year real yield rate: 45% of models predict up

— about comparable, so the implied 5-Year inflation rate may stay at the current level.

10-Year nominal yield rate: 44% of models predict up

10-Year real yield rate: 4% of models predict up

— so the 10-Year inflation rate may go up.

If one scrolls down, we get to the table of latest values,

so

the implied 5-Year inflation rate (from now to next 5 years) is 4.7 - 2.27 = 2.43 percentage points annually;

the implied 10-Year inflation rate (from now to next 10 years) is 4.7 - 2.28 = 2.42 percentage points annually.

Maybe due to the high Federal Funds Rate, by today’s predictions, the inflation rate may be capped at 2.43% for the next 5 years; for the subsequent 5 years, it may go up.