NVDA August 2024 drop and NVDA vs Gold

NVDA August drop

On tsterm.com, NVDA's computed daily position began to shave off since June 2024, before its price wobbling and drop.

Sharpe ratio (the higher the better):

Active strategy 1.49

Passive buy-and-hold 1.37

up to 2024-09-04, under 6 months forecast period.

NVDA vs Gold

If one searches for "Gold", then select "SPDR Gold Trust" (an exchange-traded product for gold), one may see the computed daily position is always close to 100%.

So if NVDA is so strong in long-term, why its computed daily position is only at 23% for today? Because under 6 months forecast period, a group of models assess the price range in 6 months time. With NVDA's wild volatility, a majority of models think it can go either infinitely down or infinitely up. With no finite price range, they are unable to say if the price is going up or down by expectation. For GLD, in contrary, each model predicted finite price range in 6 months, and they all predicted "up" by expectation.

(The daily position is just the average of recent majority votes over past 6 months. See the white paper on tsterm.com for more details.)