Long-term promise vs current running of economy (II)

Central banking, (commercial banks) money supply, stock market, inflation

Yesterday we wrote that

* 10+ trillion in money supply, in money market accounts being actively drawn
* Money market accounts earning 5+% interest rate

In this context, to make economic sense, any risky asset have to show above-par (over 5% the money market rate) consistent earning growth to be actively invested in.

Let's talk about another topic NVDA. If we check NVDA price history, as M2 money supply topped out in Feb 2022, NVDA was also largely going down in 2022. But ChatGPT (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) was released in Nov 2022, a credible app that created the third factor

* emergence of AI

If we look at NVDA net earning history (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NVDA/financials-income-statement/net-income/):

2023 29B
2022 4B
2021. 9B
2020. 4B

The three factors combined together, creates the phenomenon that one firm at least that least needs financing is being actively financed.

If one searches for NVDA on tsterm.com, as of Mon 25 Mar (https://tsterm.com/?q=nvda&h=24w&asof=2024-03-25), under 6-month forecast period. Its causal predictors are computed to be:

1. France Equity EWQ. (partly driven by consumer inflation)
2. GameStop GME. (meme stock)
3. Accenture ACN. (consulting firm reportedly working on AI deployment)
4. Microstrategy MSTR. (linked to Bitcoin, jumped 21% on Mon 25 Mar)
5. The Travelers TRV. (insurance, linked to long-term interest rate)

The above five's current prices are computed to be most influential for the price of NVDA in 6 months.

Among the five, GME, MSTR may be perceived with "hype"; whilst on Thu 21 Mar, ACN the firm reportedly working on Generative AI business orders crashed about 10%.

tsterm.com only computes on market prices at the moment, unaware of any other events, news, etc.