For medium-term asset managers: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCNY and USDJPY
Under 6-month horizon, if one searches for GBPUSD;EURUSD;USDCNY;USDJPY,
according to tsterm.com,
as of Thu 21 Sep close, the top common causally predictive factors for the conditional distributions of the values 6-month out of the four are computed as
AIG(financial, insurer buoyant for the high levels of US treasury yield rates)XOM(energy, up 10% over three recent months)S&P 500 ETF
SPY(US large-cap equity, level with three months ago)ADI(semiconductor, down 6% over three recent months)EURO STOXX 50 ETF
FEZ(Europe large-cap equity, down 4% over three recent months)
Apart from the leading two, the remaining are taking some battering from the high US treasury yield rates. The 6-month look-ahead horizon would react to, say 2-3 recent months’ movement, that’s why we quoted the stock or fund’s performance over the three most recent months.
We see that NVDA the AI factor is not computed to be here, but mostly US treasury yield rates and the widespread impact. As well as that the energy didn’t crumble under the interest rates’ pressure.
Further down, one may read the net majority of model votes (aka net predictions) for the upcoming day:
GBPUSD: 98% of models predict down
EURUSD: 48% of models predict down
USDCNY: 7% of models predict up
USDJPY: 80% of models predict up
For what “up” “down” means in this context, say, EURUSD today is around 1.06, that is 1 Euro can be exchanged for about 1.06 USD. “Down” is to predict this value going down from the current level of 1.06, i.e. 1 Euro will be exchanged for less than 1.06 of USDs.
Lastly a note especially relevant for developed markets’ (DM) currencies: DM currencies could be range-bound over a long history. If the portfolio manager adjusts the currency’s position only by a tiny amount everyday, but the bulk of it stayed almost constant, then little return is likely to be achieved for the price’s range-bound behaviour. However it was fairly quick to check for the medium-term general outlook, as under the 6-month horizon, the net prediction could vary little from day to day.