As of 2022-04

As of 2022-04-19, for 2 day ahead prediction, the most important predictors for 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-Year US Real Interest Rates are

• T-Mobile US TMUS (telecommunications)

• Checkpoint Software CHKP (tech)

• Microsoft MSFT (tech)

If we add BTCUSD, ETHUSD to the targets of interest rates, the most important predictive factors for them all become solely

• GameStop GME (social trading)

Real Interest is the nominal interest rate minus market-expected inflation. On FRED, one could find data for US Real Interest Rates under the title of “nn-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security”.

On the side of equity, the most important predictive factors driving QQQ, SPY, DIA for 2 day ahead prediction are

• iShares MSCI Japan ETF EWJ (Japan)

• Xcel Energy Inc (clean energy)

If we add BTCUSD, ETHUSD to the targets of equity ETFs, the most important predictive factors become

• iShares MSCI Japan ETF EWJ (Japan)

• GameStop GME (social trading)

Why Japan? According to the computational engine, it itself is being driven by

• Idexx IDXX (medical testing)

• iShares MSCI Japan ETF EWJ (Japan, ie its own trend)

• Activision Blizzard ATVI (gaming)

• CSX (transportation)

• Exxon Mobil XOM (energy)

• NXP Semiconductors NXPI (industrial, semiconductor)

• General Motors GM (industrial)

• Zoom ZM (tech, pandemic-linked)

• Honeywell HON (industrial)

• O’Reilly Automotive ORLY (consumer)

• Pfizer PFE (pharmaceutical)

So Japan could be viewed as an indicator of how major Western industries are doing.