2026-06: Industrials, esp semiconductor driving US stocks
The industrials, especially semiconductor, are computed to be driving the three US stock indices: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The prediction time point is the day in six months from the latest market close, but it can be flexibly configured. The engine only computes on prices of stocks, currencies, bonds, which are all numerical values at the moment. It does not take in news (in the form of text), but the American capital market is generally efficient, so the influence of news makes the asset prices go up or down rapidly.
The KLA Corporation, makes wafer fabrication equipment. It also supplies yield management software, to perform quality check of fabricated semiconductor wafer. The Board of KLA Corporation has wide ties in industries.
The No 3 computed causal predictor is iShares MSCI France ETF, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of a portfolio of French stocks.
On https://tradingeconomics.com/france/stock-market, on the Constituent Stocks table, fist click on the “+” to visualise the whole table. Then click on the “Year” column title to sort by the year-to-date performance, STMicroelectronics would be ranked No. 1, with +144% year-to-date performance.
Note however the price-to-earning ratio of these semiconductor stocks have climbed quite high, KLA 78, STM 466 (Yahoo Finance), while the median level of this ratio of the S&P 500 index post World War II was about 20. So either these corporates will have to increase earning, or their stock prices may go down. Last month, SpaceX SPCX was listed, which may create demand for semiconductor components.
Is SPCX in the graph of causal predictors?
Not yet. tsterm.com pulls SPCX prices everyday, but a stock needs to have decades of history before being taken into account in the calculation of the graph of causal predictors.