2026-03: Credit risk driving global assets
On the tsterm.com homepage, S&P Global Inc whose main business is credit rating is computed as causally predictive of the prices of global assets: equity, foreign exchange and bonds, etc.
The time point for forecast is the one in six months. The engine is flexible and can be configured with another forecast time point.
One may add “/?asof=<date>” to the end of the URL for results in the past. For example, add “/?asof=2026-03-10” to the end of “https://tsterm.com” in the browser’s URL box. “https://tsterm.com/?asof=2026-03-10” will display the result computed as of 2026-03-10.
The Iran war started on 28 February. Since 10 March, the SPGI was always computed as the No 1 driving factor of global assets, which may generally reflect the concern of credit (default) risk of companies.
As talks “the war may end in weeks” continued, as of 2026-03-25, the Nvidia NVDA AI stock became the No 1 driving factor of global assets, SPGI dropped to No 2.
This lasted a few days. As information about the Marine deployment and ground war accumulates, as of 2026-03-30, the SPGI became the computed No 1 driving factor of global assets again, reflecting the credit risk of common concern.
The tsterm.com engine today does not read news. As the American capital market is particularly efficient, news will have been incorporated into asset prices, driving them up or down. The tsterm.com engine only computes on numerical prices. The methodology is generic, based on statistics and machine learning.