2025-11: currently peaked inflation and AAPL driving US equity
Some stocks embodying inflation recently peaked.
If one searches for ETFs tracking the three US major stocks “QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US” — type the string including the semicolon but excluding the quotation marks on tsterm.com, the top computed causal predictors for them are
The forecast target date is the day in 6 months.
The No. 1 causal predictor is Cintas, producing workwear including uniforms, mats, mops and cleaning supplies. One may imagine its stock price embodies inflation. Below is its full history, which has peaked currently.
Note during Trump first year of tariffs, the gaming stocks mostly rallied, maybe because it is digital goods least impacted by tariffs, or because Nintendo, a peer in the category, had good sales in Asia.
The No. 3 computed causal predictor was Electronic Arts, a gaming stock. The price jumped as it was being bought out.
(BBC) Gaming giant Electronic Arts bought in unprecedented $55bn deal
During the onset of Trump tariffs, one computed causal predictor for the US stock indices was Take-Two TTWO a gaming stock, which kept rising (despite negative earning). Based on that behaviour, the prediction for the Nasdaq 100 index was getting more bullish (compared to S&P 500 or the DJIA) even during the volatile first half of 2025, which proved to be right.
But since the Gaza peace, the prediction for the Nasdaq 100 tempered a bit, but it got strengthened for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices, if one scrolls down the result page for the charts “Computed Holding”.