2025-02: Gold, oil and gas energy driving US equity six months out

US protective trade policies: if it is harder to get dollar from trade, then a foreign central bank may turn to buying gold for the reserve. Furthermore, central banks usually hold US treasury bonds, but an interest rate staying high equates to low bond price (the bond price and interest rate have an inverse relationship), depreciating their holdings.

Below are the computed top driving factors for US three stock indices six months out:

• Gold

• Duke Energy DUK for oil and gas energy

• Bank of America BAC for US banking

• US 7-10 Years Bond ETF IEF

It happens that both the oil and gas industry and banking industry are benefiting from the Trump administration’s supportive policy, though tsterm.com only computes on asset prices.

The Duke Energy DUK is currently circa 113 USD, just off the all-time high c. 120 USD. If we zoom out to the full history below, the 2000 Dot Com Crash and 2008 Financial Crash did little to the stock price. The only major correction was following the Enron crash starting from 2001.

According to tsterm.com, how well this energy company’s stock price does foretells the possible values of the three US stock indices Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DJIA on the day in six months. For more details, search for “QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US” on tsterm.com.