2024-11: Bitcoin driving global (US and ex-US) assets; 1933, 1934 US gold/silver nationalisation
Causal Predictors for Global Assets 6 months away
As of Saturday 23 Nov 2024, what drives the global (US and ex-US) assets are, as on the homepage of https://tsterm.com:
Greenidge Generation GREE (Bitcoin miner with clean energy)
US 7-10 Years Bond ETF IEF (when interest rate increases, bond price decreases)
Baidu BIDU (China search engine, internet economy)
Notes:
Precisely, what’s shown is the most important causal predictors for the values or prices of global assets on the single day in 6 months as identified by the computational engine
GREE is at best an imperfect proxy for Bitcoin. It has gone through several mergers with different businesses and is yet to post a positive earning. However its rise in recent month has been noted by tsterm.com.
WHY is the Bitcoin not there in this causal graph? For 6 months forecast period, we require decades of training data, however Bitcoin is only released about one decade ago.
1993 US Gold Nationalisation, 1994 US Silver Nationalisation
US just went into the deepest depression at the start of the 1930s, so the historical context may not be identical to today, but below are some interesting readings.
After 1993, 1994 Executive Orders, it happened that the Dow Jones Industrial Average index reflated. Note we are not saying the two Executive Orders “caused” that, but at least they happened in sequential order.
Dow-Jones Industrial Stock Price Index for United States
If one searches for “DIA.US” on tsterm.com for the ETF tracking the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) index, by a large chance the No.1 computed causal predictor for it is GREE the Bitcoin miner.
