2024-07: European equity, US stocks producing daily essentials as predictors for US equity
As of Thursday 18 July 2024, the top common causal predictors for US three stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are
for 6 months forecast period,
Euro Stoxx 50 ETF FEZ
S&P Dividend ETF SPY
China Large-Cap ETF FXI
Salesforce CRM
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF
Below are the recent three months price trajectories of the computed common predictors.
We can see the European and China Large-Cap equity are wobbling. The S&P Dividend index holds a basket of stocks producing daily essentials, from toothpaste to cars, and just surged as the Federal Reserve signalled higher chance of interest rate cut.
The bond price is inversely related with interest rate. When interest rate goes down, the bond price goes up. The last chart for US 7-10 Years Bond Treasury ETF IEF reflected that.