2024-03: (Second to US interest rate,) Aviation theme as emerging predictor for global assets, real economy as predictor for US equity
As of Mon 18 Mar, using 6-month forecast period,
as computed by tsterm.com,
the common causal predictors for global assets (US, Europe, Asia etc) across asset classes (equity, fixed income, etc) are
AIG (insurance, holds long-term bonds)
France equity EWQ
GameStop GME (meme stock, down maybe under interest rate pressure)
United Health UNH (healthcare, down maybe under interest rate pressure)
GE (industrial, aviation)
So it is computed that their price data today is most influential for prediction of global assets overall 6 months out.
If one checks the constituent stocks of France equity index on tradingeconomics.com, the aviation theme is most up over one year as Airbus, Safran.
General Electric, through the 2021 split plan, “GE will be an aviation-focused company; GE Aerospace will be the legal successor of the original GE.”
The common causal predictors for US equity index ETFs QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US are
AIG (insurance, holds long-term bonds)
S&P Dividend ETF SDY
Copart CPRT (consumer, used cars)
USD to China Yuan exchange rate USDCNY (currency)
Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD
Among the S&P Dividend ETF SDY’s main constituents, industrials, energy and utilities are repressed maybe under high interest rate, but IBM (technology service) is up on AI theme, Target TGT (consumer) is up.