2023-10: Oracle ORCL, Dow Jones Industrial Average index predictive of global assets
As of 2023-10-19 Thu end-of-day, using 2-day ahead horizon,
The conditional distribution of the value of the US three major stock index ETFs QQQ
, SPY
, DIA
2-days out are computed to be causally predicted by
Synopsys
SNPS
(semiconductor design)Oracle
ORCL
(technology, database vendor)O’Reilly Automotive
ORLY
(consumer, car parts)Salesforce
CRM
(technology)GBPUSD
(currency)
The three semiconductor/tech predictors’ price-to-earning ratios are generally above 40, (whilst S&P 500 index’s historic median was around 14-18).
If the target instruments expand to all global assets, the top two causal predictors are computed to be
Oracle
ORCL
(technology, database vendor)Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA
(US 30 largest-cap)