2023-09: for short-term: US keeps out of deflation; for medium-term: semiconductor and biotech as drivers for US equity

As of Mon 18 Sep close, according to tsterm.com,

with 2-day ahead forecast horizon, the top common causally predictive factors for the conditional distribution of the three US major stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA is computed as

1. Exelon Corp. EXC (utility)

By the Wikipedia article on Exelon,

Exelon is the largest electric parent company in the United States by revenue and is the largest regulated electric utility in the United States with approximately 10 million customers.

Being largely range-bound over decades, EXC was up 4.5% over past one month. So that may keep the US out of deflation, while the liquidity supply is being tightened.

with 6-month ahead forecast horizon, the top two common causally predictive factors for the same targets are computed to be

1. Nvidia NVDA (semiconductor, AI)

2. Amgen AMGN (pharmaceutical / biotech)

The 6-month horizon results react not to short-term, say sub-one month movement, but to longer, say two-three months movements.

Over past three recent months, NVDA was about flat; AMGN went up 13%.