2023-08: Professional and industrial services as leading signal to any broad reversal of US equity, some grocery prices drop

Did you see some Heinz sauces on discount shelf last month? Great. Let’s start.

As of Sun 20 Aug, from the short 2-day ahead horizon, according to tsterm,

the common causally predictive factors behind the US 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-Year Real Yield Rates DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are computed to be

• General Motors GM (industrial)

• Fastenal FAST (industrial service)

• NZDUSD (New Zealand dollar to US dollar exchange rate)

GM and FAST: any deviation of their stock price from their respective long-term trend could be linked to the inflation rate. NZDUSD may, as one interpretation, be related to the relative strength of US and Asia-Pacific economies.

The common causally predictive factors behind the US three major stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are computed to be

• Danaher DHR (professional and industrial service)

• Kraft Heinz Co. KHC (consumer)

• US 10-Year Real Yield Rate DFII10 (US real interest rate)

• Citigroup C (financial)

Danaher DHR according to its wikipedia page,

Danaher Corporation is an American globally diversified conglomerate founded by brothers Stephen and Mitchell Rales in 1984. ……, the company designs, manufactures, and markets medical, industrial, and commercial products and services.

We list its stock performance over past one year and past one month, in contrast with those of the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ and the S&P 500 ETF SPY.

over past one year over past one month

DHR -12% -2%

QQQ +14% -4%

SPY +5% -4%

So at the moment, tsterm may be convinced that,

• if DHR and KHC keep going down, that’s predictive of US broad equity continuing trending down;

• when DHR begins trending up, it may be predictive of short-term reversal of the current downward trend of US broad equity. (The logic could go this way: over past one year, even when DHR went down, US stock indices went up; now if DHR is going up, that’d only provide strong impetus to predict US stock indices to go up?)

One may search for QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US on tsterm to see the above results.