2023-07: High tech stocks and high yields

TL;DR: Large-cap tech stocks rallied about 50% from the 2022 low; the industrial service firm Cintas CTAS rallied about 10% from the 2022 end; High Yield bonds in the JNK ETF’s average Yield to Worst is circa 8.44% as of June.

As of Tue 18 Jul, from 2-day horizon according to tsterm, the common causally predictive factors behind the US 5-, 10-, 20-, 30- real interest rates DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are

• Amazon AMZN (technology)

• AECOM ACM (consulting service, including for environmental projects)

• Cintas CTAS (industrial services, providing uniform, cleaning supplies, safety products, etc)

• DocuSign DOCU (technology/startup, enterprise digitalisation)

• Schlumberger SLB (industrial, building oil and gas infrastructure)

• US dollar/Indian Rupee exchange rates USDINR (currency)

The common causally predictive factors behind US three major stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are

• Apple AAPL (technology)

• United States Oil Fund USO (energy, US crude oil)

• Bank of America Corp BAC (financial)

• iShares MSCI Germany ETF EWG (equity, Germany)

• Alphabet Inc GOOG (technology)

• SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF JNK (fixed income, high yield bonds)

• Texas Instruments Inc. TXN (industrial, semiconductor manufacturing)

• Robinhood HOOD (FinTech)

Out of the array of “driving” (causally predictive) factors, we see a diverging picture: tech AAPL and GOOG are booming, the US crude oil USO is going lower over 2023 (US steadily increasing oil and gas production), BAC and TXN wobbling from the 2022 end.

One may search for “DFII5; DFII10; DFII20; DFII30” or “QQQ.US; SPY.US; DIA.US” and see the results on tsterm.