2023-04: A relief of liquidity

As of Tue 18 Apr, from 2-day ahead horizon, we will see certain critical driving factors went higher in price and Price-to-Earning ratio.

The common drivers behind the US 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-Year Real Interest Rates DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are

• Disney DIS (consumer; media)

• Lululemon Athletica Inc LULU (consumer, yogawear)

• Incyte INCY (biopharmaceutical)

• United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS (service, courier service)

For a recall, Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Implied Inflation Rate.

The common drivers behind the US major equity index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are

• Nvidia NVDA (industrial, semiconductor manufacturing)

• US 30-Year Real Interest Rate DFII30 (real interest rate)

• Nike NKE (consumer, footwear, sportswear)

The success of ChatGPT may have ignited the Nvidia NVDA stock back up, whose chips are a key component for training AI. Its Price-to-Earning ratio is also back up to 159. As a reference, one may find the S&P 500 Price-to-Earning ratio history on https://www.multpl.com/.

The US 30-Year Real Interest DFII30 is currently around the normal level “1.5%” since 2010s. It rallied since the start of 2022 and is pulling back since Oct 2022.

It happens that Nike NKE became a driver of broad markets according to tsterm about one week after the film «Air» was released based on the history of Nike. At the moment it is trending at No.5 on IMDB following Super Mario Bros, Dungeons and Dragons, and Barbie.

Air https://m.imdb.com/title/tt16419074/

As a note, the computational engine behind tsterm only processes price data of various time series, with no knowledge of particular discretionary events for the time being.