2023-03: FinTech consumer loan under pressure

As of Sun 2023-03-19, from 2-day ahead horizon, the common drivers behind the US 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-Year Real interest rates are

• Oracle ORCL (technology)

• Upstart Holdings Inc UPST (FinTech, consumer loan)

• Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund XLRE (US real estate sector)

• Moderna Inc MRNA (pharmaceutical)

For recall, real interest rate - nominal interest rate = implied inflation.

The common drivers behind the US stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are a longer list. Consumer loan stocks are ranking higher than long-term interest rate or energy, which are the usual concerns.

• Upstart Holdings Inc UPST (FinTech, consumer loan)

• Liberty Global plc LBTYA (telecommunications)

• Mastercard MA (financial, consumer loan)

• Visa V (financial, consumer loan)

• Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. BMY (pharmaceutical)

• Moderna Inc MRNA (pharmaceutical)

• US 20-Year Treasury Yield Rate (US long-term interest rate)

• Tesla TSLA (technology)

• Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM (energy)

• United States Brent Crude Oil Fund BNO (energy, Brent crude oil)

Over the past month March, UPST, MA and V all pulled back. With regard to their entire history, UPST is still at a lowest point; MA and V are not too far from historic high however. Among the three, UPST’s latest net earning seems negative.