2023-02: GOOG tame

As of Sat 2023-02-18, using 2-day ahead horizon, the causally predictive factors behind US 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-Year Real Interests DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are

• ASML Holding ASML (industrial, semiconductor manufacturing)

• iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (equity, Switzerland)

• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. REGN (pharmaceutical)

• S&P MidCap 400 ETF MDY (equity, US, midcap)

As a reminder, real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus (market-implied) inflation rate.

On the side of equity, the top drivers behind the US stock index ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are

• Alphabet Inc GOOGL (technology, Internet service)

• NXP Semiconductors NXPI (industrial, semiconductor)

• Paychex Inc PAYX (service/technology, payroll processing)

• Pepsi Co PEP (consumer, beverage)

• Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (service/technology, scientific instrumentation)

• Coca-Cola Co KO (consumer, beverage)

• Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLI (industrial, US, industrial)

February was a volatile month, and the picture was delicate. Over the last 30 days,

• GOOG went down a bit

• ASML about break-even (providing some support for real interest rate), NXPI grew (providing support for stocks)

• PEP grew, KO about break-even (at least none went down as a gauge of general consumer)

• Higher P/E (31) TMO went down, relatively more moderate P/E (22) XLI went up

P/E stands for Price/Earning ratio, which measures the valuation the market gives to all the future cash flow generated by a stock. Usually people quote 15-16 for average P/E ratio for US stocks post-war.