2023-01: Pull back of consumer price

As of Wed 2023-01-18, using 2-day ahead forecast horizon, the common causally predictive factors behind US Real Interest Rates DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are

• US 10-Year (nominal) Interest Rate DGS10 (US long-term nominal interest rate)

• Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF XLK (US technology sector)

• Walmart WMT (consumer, retail)

• Coca-Cola KO (consumer, beverage)

• Copart CPRT (consumer, used vehicles)

For a recall, nominal interest rate = real interest rate + inflation.

Over the past month, Walmart WMT and Coca-cola KO dropped. If we take those stock prices as proxy for consumer price generally, one may conjure consumer price pulled back, or at least did not further grow.

The common causally predictive factors for US Equity ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are a long list this time, many being biotech/pharma, emerging market, consumer price, etc.

• United States Natural Gas Fund UNG (commodity, natural gas)

• Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. BMRN (biotech)

• iShares MSCI Australia ETF EWA (equity, Australia)

• Seagen Inc SGEN (biotech)

• iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM (equity, emerging markets)

• Astrazeneca plc ADR AZN (pharma)

• …