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2022-12: Unsung predictors
tsterm only sees numbers, agnostic of human events. When we mention an event, it serves solely as chronological marker in the hope to facilitate reader’s constructing the whole picture. However as we mention an event, we cannot guarantee that event had had a real impact on the ensuing numbers; again, tsterm only observes and works on numbers, agnostic of particular events at all.
Since the 30 Nov Fed Chairman Powell talk, for a few weeks, there were no longer common strong causally predictive factors behind the US real interest rates, until gradually newly computed ones surfaced up.
As of Wed 2022-12-21, from the 2-day ahead prediction, the common drivers behind US Real Interests DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are
Ford Motors F (industrial)
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF EWU (equity, United Kingdom)
ConocoPhilipps COP (energy)
The common drivers behind US Equity ETFs QQQ, SPY, DIA are
Fastenal FAST (industrial)
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF EWT (equity, Taiwan)
Fastenal FAST literally produces nuts and bolts, as well as gloves, cleaning buckets, etc. Low as they seem, there could be steady demand.
If one searches for “taiwan” or “EWT” in tsterm, one may see a delicate picture of what’s currently driving it for the short horizon 2-day ahead, which include electronics, US payroll, New Zealand equity, etc.
Below are 10-year history of Fastenal FAST and Taiwan ETF EWT. We could see roughly two phases of rise until 2022/retreat since.