2022-11: Dollar vs Fuel Cost

As of Tue 2022-11-22, from 2-day ahead prediction, the common drivers behind US Real Interest Rates DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are

• USD/INR (currency, Indian Rupee)

• Disney DIS (media/entertainment)

• USD/CHF (currency, Swiss franc)

The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that government bonds bear, minus market-implied inflation rate.

The common drivers behind US Equity QQQ, SPY, DIA are

• United States Natural Gas Fund LP UNG (commodity, natural gas)

In order to understand what drives USDINR 2 days out, if one does the search for “USDINR” on tsterm.com, the top two drivers are EURUSD and Oracle ORCL, so the value of dollar and the momentum of tech, if any, get conveyed into USDINR.

Lastly, let’s look at USDINR, USDCHF, UNG in November 2022. The USD slacked in strength, the natural gas re-picked up.