2022-08: US long-term interest rates to go up

As of Thu 2022-08-18, according to the computational engine, for 2-day ahead prediction, the common drivers behind 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-Year US Real Interest Rates are

• Costco COST (consumer)

• Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP (consumer)

To recall, Real Interest Rate + (Market Implied) Inflation = Nominal Interest Rate. The US Real Interest Rates could be found under ticker DFII5, DFII10, … on the FRED database.

At the moment COST and XLP are back to the Jan 2022 level. In the meanwhile, DFII5, DFII10, DFII20, DFII30 are all forecast to go up on TS Terminal. They may have bearings on the US nominal interest rates.

On the side of equity, the common drivers behind QQQ, SPY, DIA are

• Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG (consumer, Internet economy, tech)

• ETHUSDT (cryptocurrency)

• Visa V (consumer, financial)

• Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLI (industrials)

• Bank of America Corp BAC (financial)

• iShares MSCI Germany ETF (Germany)

• Copart Inc CPRT (consumer, used cars)

There is a heavy dose of Internet economy and financials. In this context, industrials are rising in importance.